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Table 8 Estimated incidence of clinical mastitis (cases per 100 cows per lactation) in Ireland during 2010, using three different scenarios (with differing numbers of tubes per treatment regime) and based on DCT sales collated by GfK Kynetec

From: Insights into udder health and intramammary antibiotic usage on Irish dairy farms during 2003-2010

   

Explanation, assumptions

i.

Approximate number of dairy cows (2010)

1,000,000

Includes all milking cows, assuming an average 5 lactations/cow

ii.

Number of cows at risk of clinical mastitis

1,000,000

Equals i. (all lactating cows are at risk of clinical mastitis)

iii.

Days at risk per cow

335

Assumes 305 day lactation, 60 day dry period and cows are at risk from 30 days prior to calving until drying offa

iv.

Days after treatment before a subsequent treatment is considered a new case

8

As recommendeda

v.

Number of in-lactation tubes sold (2010)

1,664,066

As collated by GfK Kynetec

vi.

Total number of in-lactation tubes sold

1,957,725

Assuming v. represents 85% of all DCT sales

Scenario 1: 3 tubes per treatment regime

1.i

Total number of treated clinical cases

652,575

Assuming 3 tubes per treatment regime, one affected quarter per cow, tubes restricted to clinical cases only

1.ii

Total number of new cases

652,575

100% of treated cases considered new cases

1.iii

Number of clinical cases per 100 cow-years at risk

72.4b, c

 

Scenario 2: 4 tubes per treatment regime

2.i

Total number of treated clinical cases

489,431

Assuming 4 tubes per treatment regime, one affected quarter per cow, tubes restricted to clinical cases only

2.ii

Total number of new cases

489,431

100% of treated cases considered new cases

2.iii

Number of clinical cases per 100 cow-years at risk

54.0b, c

 

Scenario 3: 5 tubes per treatment regime

3.i

Total number of treated clinical cases

391,545

Assuming 5 tubes per treatment regime, one affected quarter per cow, tubes restricted to clinical cases only

3.ii

Total number of new cases

391,545

100% of treated cases considered new cases

3.iii

Number of clinical cases per 100 cow-years at risk

43.1b, c

 
  1. a. Based on recommendations of the International Dairy Federation [21]
  2. b. Without changing any other assumptions, if GfK Kynetec data represents 80% or 90% of national DCT sales, the incidence of clinical cases would range from 77.0 to 68.3 in scenario 1, 57.5 to 51.0 in scenario 2 and 45.8 to 40.7 in scenario 3, respectively
  3. c. Without changing any other assumptions, if the percentage of treated cases considered new cases were 80% or 60%, the incidence of clinical cases per 100 cow-years at risk would be 57.7 or 43.1 for scenario 1, 43.1 or 32.3 for scenario 2 and 34.4 or 25.8 for scenario 3, respectively